ANALYSIS OF GOOD URBAN GOVERNANCE INDICATORS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE EFFICIENCY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF LOCAL MANAGEMENT WITH A FUTURES STUDIES APPROACH

Abstract

In this research, the dimensions of desirable urban governance in District 20 of Tehran are evaluated from a futures studies perspective. Key factors and their interconnections have been analyzed and ranked. The study is applied in its purpose and descriptive-analytical in its methodology. By reviewing the literature and extracting the most significant key factors of urban governance using the Delphi technique from 30 experts, factors were assessed based on consensus and certainty, priority, and importance. Key factors and input parameters were identified, resulting in 51 key drivers ready for input into the Micmac software.

The evaluation of the impact and influence of key factors shows that three drivers are ranked first in terms of direct and indirect impact. Out of 237 possible situations, 48.10% show favorable conditions, 29.96% are static, and 21.94% are critical. Additionally, there are nine scenarios with favorable conditions, indicating promising prospects for urban management in the future.